… and nowhere for it to go.  For those who want to pick up a bargain this year and are lucky enough to have money or access to money, there is a nasty suprise in store.

Across the country agents are reporting a lack of new potential instructions for the Spring market this year.  People aren’t selling.

Yes, there is plenty on the market that is overpriced and/or blighted, but quality properties, sensibly priced, are in very short supply.

Back to ‘bagging a bargain’ – our advice is to be very careful.  Particularly of a property, which is both blighted and overpriced – when the price suddenly tumbles to reflect the new realities of value, remember that it is still blighted.

Make sure that the price paid reflects BOTH value and blight, and the great aspects of the place heavily outweigh the bad.

Two extraordinary pieces of news that were almost completely buried underneath a blanket of snow over the last week – interest rates down ANOTHER 1% and the Halifax reporting a an INCREASE in house prices.

In 2006 and 2007 as we came ever closer to a housing bubble burst, we were consistently faced with competitive counter-bidders against our clients looking to pay more than we thought sensible.  I looked to hedge by betting the property market short, but there were no indices used by any of the exchanges that seemed to bear any relation to the ACTUAL market.

The Halifax figures, as they themselves were good enough to admit, are a blip.  Prices have dropped and those houses that reflect an idea of the NEW values are being bought and sold – and that has to be 30-35% off the peak of 2007.

In our market appraisal tool bag, we are using a new index of value – how much would it cost to build this house?   When that figure (not including the land) is more than the asking price it makes you think.

The market has shown definite signs of life – but only the faintest of blips.  House are selling at all levels of the market, but only in limited to numbers to those people who have to move, can move or want to bag a bargain.  The majority market remains sat on it’s hands.

It is very difficult for may people to have any idea what to do.  They are faced with a fog of financial, employment and political uncertainty – all of which lead to inactivity and stagnation.

If you are thinking of buying a property for investment purposes, or just swapping homes, now is the time to take walk into the mist.  Look at houses, check your finances and talk to professionals who are in the market all day – we can’t guarantee total clarity, but we can give you a guiding hand over a landscape we know well.

.. and I suppose we shouldn’t be surprised by reports from many of the country agents.  There are fewer properties coming to the market this year than was expected.

The market for UK country property is still geared to a Spring-opening.  Frankly, why any vendor would want to wait until the Spring to tell everybody that their house is for sale is an art understood by estate agents, but has never made any sense to me.  The sophisticated buyer is able to see through winter garden and grey skies to the beauty of a Spring garden – and would like to be there enjoying it if they can.

But there is some rhyme and reason – people take stock at the end of the year, meet their families over Christmas, have a sit-down and a think.  And often will make the decision – 2009 is the year we will move.

But many are not.  And this is both a good and a bad thing.

The fear of many was a tsunami of property onto the market, and freefalling prices.  And they have been in freefall, but prices should stabilise.

But there may be less choice.

Our advice to anybody looking to move this year is:

a) talk to your estate agent – it may be easier to sell your property this year than you thought

b) get into the market – things have changed a lot since you last bought a house

James Greenwood